The letter below is also available as a PDF file HERE. February 24, 2025 2024 Annual Letter 2024 felt like 2023. American stock market indices posted strong returns, led by technology, and the bond market posted a small positive return. It also felt a lot like 2021, which was one of the most speculative times in stock market history. Both 2024 and 2021 saw the S&P 500 end at valuations at or approaching those of Read more…
Joe was a guest on the Guardians of Finance Podcast. You can find the interview on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts, or another favorite podcast player.
The letter below is also available as a PDF file HERE. February 20, 2024 2023 Annual Letter 2023 was far different than 2022 in the stock and bond markets. After one of the worst years in history that saw stock and bond markets tumble in 2022, stock market indices soared in 2023, and the bond market returned to a more modest, positive return. In our Diversified Strategy, where we diversify widely and adjust the asset Read more…
In my 2022 Annual Letter, published earlier this month, I referenced a statement that I made in my 2021 Annual Letter: “The returns from stocks and bonds during the next 13 years are likely to be much lower than during the last 13 years. With interest rates close to zero and stock valuations near all-time highs at year-end, the odds favor much lower returns going forward.” In a similar vein, Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman Read more…
The letter below is also available as a more-readable PDF file, HERE. 2022 Annual Letter 2022 was that rare year when both stocks and bonds declined—and declined significantly. The S&P 500 fell 18.1%, with dividends included, and the more tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped about 32%. The bond market, using the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index as a proxy, declined 13%. The worst previous loss for that index occurred in 1994 when it fell by just 2.9%. In Read more…
This letter is also available as a PDF, HERE. 2021 Annual Letter “In economics, you always want to ask, ‘And then what?’” —Warren Buffett If on January 1, 2020, someone had told you that the world was about to experience a global pandemic that would close borders and businesses—and continue to periodically close them at various stages during the next two years—no one would have blamed you for not wanting to own too many stocks Read more…
This letter is also available as a PDF, HERE. January 26, 2021 2020 Annual Letter “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” Read more…
One of Bill Gates’ favorite authors and teachers is Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. He’s written 41 books and a polymath on many subjects, especially the areas of science involving energy and the environment. In a year when we have both a pandemic and major fluctuations in the oil market, I’ve gone back and reviewed some of Smil’s writings and interviews. Read more…
As I was lying in bed this week trying to get over jet lag, I realized that the jet lag “problem” I was having was a lucky problem. Lucky problems are solvable problems. With a little time and effort, the problem goes away, with no lasting effect to think about going forward. Unlucky problems aren’t solvable. They either end something, or keep coming back. If you watch the news regularly, you’ll come across plenty of Read more…
This letter is also available as a PDF, HERE. January 26, 2020 2019 Annual Letter We completed our first (partial) year as a registered investment adviser (RIA) at the end of 2019. We began our RIA journey offering just one strategy, the Absolute Return Strategy. As the year moved on and I continued to learn more about the advantages of managing separate accounts—as opposed to a fund structure—I realized that we could potentially help clients Read more…